Trump’s Victory and its Impact on Global Climate Commitments

The US election held on November 5th resulted in Donald Trump`s victory over Kamala Harris. Experts, academics, and climate scientists have voiced concerns about how his election may affect efforts to combat climate change.

From his previous term, it is known that he is not a supporter of the green transition. He is calling green energy a “scam”. Even though climate change was not something they mentioned a lot in the election campaigns this time his actions could be more severe to get away from.

COP29

The COP, conference of parties, is one of the most effective multiparty meetings for countries to make commitments conference of parties. This year’s COP29 taking place in Baku already started on November 11th.

One of the other things Trump mentioned before is to resign from the Paris Agreement again and possibly from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which means the US to not participate in the COP negotiations. This election can show us Trump`s new policies towards climate change. Whatever the current US government promises the Trump administration will not be bound by any agreements made by President Joe Biden’s negotiators at the COP negotiations in Azerbaijan.

However, Trump would still be bound by other international initiatives to combat climate change, even though the US might rapidly withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Some have called for the president-elect to leave the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which serves as the foundation for international cooperation in combating climate change, in place, calling for a total break from UN efforts in this area.

Oil and Gas

In addition to changes to the US stance, the incoming Trump administration is probably going to press for a significant increase in oil and gas development in the United States, weaken environmental regulations, and put high tariffs on Chinese solar panels and electric cars.

He supports the mantra of “drill, baby drill” and he wants to end the support for the Inflation Reduction Act that is seen as the Green New Deal. Trump declared that he had a “powerful mandate” in the last weeks. Trump adviser Jason Miller stated on the show on Wednesday that he will issue an executive order on his first day in office to significantly expand oil and gas drilling, “which will ultimately then bring down prices, bring down inflation.”

Although oil prices are set on a global market, there’s little a president can do to significantly change them. The U.S. is also already producing oil at peak levels. While Trump is certain to remove regulations and ease permitting — which could decrease costs for producers — it won’t be enough to dramatically cut prices.

Oil producers certainly don’t want to see prices bottom out, which cuts into their bottom line and makes drilling unprofitable, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.com.

The return of a Trump administration marks a potential turning point in the U.S.’s approach to climate policy, posing significant challenges to both national and global green initiatives. His administration has the ability to undo climate gains, which could jeopardize the global 1.5°C target and raise environmental hazards.

It also mentions that in the face of these difficulties, resilience might develop. Under Trump, progressive state-led programs like California’s climate rules may be disrupted, opposition to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies may increase, and climate reporting standards may be weakened.

However, U.S. businesses operating abroad will continue to follow international reporting, particularly in accordance with the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. Under a Trump administration, the United States may withdraw from international climate programs, lowering emissions pledges and perhaps pressuring other countries, such as China and India, to scale back their own efforts.

Nevertheless, there is optimism for further climate action thanks to subnational organizations and the international agreement on net-zero ambitions. By repealing the Inflation Reduction Act and extending oil and gas leases, the administration may give fossil fuels precedence over renewable energy. However, economic reasons continue to push the adoption of renewable energy, particularly in conservative states like Texas and Iowa, perhaps guaranteeing its expansion despite federal policies.

The question now is whether these collective efforts will be strong enough to offset potential setbacks from a reduced U.S. role in climate leadership.

By Yeliz Azim – Net Zero Graduate